11.4.1.1 Overestimation of the group

The first type consists of two symptoms: invulnerability and unquestioned belief in the inherent morality of the group. The illusion of invulnerability comprises the belief of the ingroup that they are untouchable. This leads to a certain kind of over-optimism, excessive risk-taking and the ignoring of warnings. An example of this is the Bay of Pigs invasion,1 which ended in a complete catastrophe. The decision makers did not believe that there was a possibility that their invasion plan would leak out, whereas the first signs of leakage had already appeared. Furthermore, they did not think about the reactions in the world when the involvement of the United States would become public. The second symptom of overestimation of the group is the unquestioned belief in the inherent morality of the group. This entails that there is no discussion about the moral consequences of their decisions. An example is the way the Vietnamese people were dealt with during the war in Vietnam. When the decision about military targets had to be made four factors were considered. Civilian casualties was one of these factors and the destructive way of operating in Vietnam was justified by the fact that civilian casualties were considered. Although this factor was addressed, the decision makers under command of President Johnson did not have a thorough discussion about the impact on the Vietnamese people and the impact of these actions on public opinion.