11.4.3.3 Provocative situational context

The third sort of antecedents entails the provocative situational context. Janis identifies two antecedents within this group: high stress situations from external threats and low self-esteem (Janis 1982: 250-254). With respect to the stress antecedent, Janis mentions two explicit conditions that must be met in order to increase the probability of groupthink. First, the stress must come from an external threat and, second, the group must have little hope that a solution, other than the one recommended by the leader, will be found. Decisions with stress from external threats must be discerned from routine decisions with normal day-to-day stress. Only the first sort of stress situations have implications for groupthink. Due to the external threat the group starts to form cohesion to support each other socially. The social support increases the probability of groupthink as long as the leadership is considered to be strong by the other members of the group. If the authority of the leader is harmed or – more in general – if the other members no longer have any faith in the leader’s solution, the risk of groupthink decreases drastically. In that case, the hope to find a solution decreases and social cohesion diminishes. The risk of groupthink only arises when both conditions – external threat and strong leadership – are met; stress from an external threat without the presence of a strong leader is not an antecedent of groupthink in itself.

Situations with high stress from external threats are likely to be accompanied by low self-esteem, which is the second antecedent in the category provocative situational context. This is because important decisions that must be made under stress from external threats are often characterised by choices that contradict with ethical standards of the group or of the individual members (O’Connor 2003: 1267-1268). Therefore, members of the group feel discomfort or shame or guilt in these decision processes, which lowers their self-esteem. They turn to the other members of the group for rationalisations of the decisions and to feel better. This increases group cohesiveness and increases the likelihood of groupthink.

The next subsection addresses some of the precautionary measures that can be taken in order to prevent groups from concurrence seeking. The role of independence within the board or supervisory board is discussed as well.